UBP emerged from the April 19 snap general election as the largest party! It did emerge as the largest party, but the question on everyone’s mind these days is: “Will it govern alone, or will it enter a coalition?”
UBP leader Derviş Eroğlu says, “A government with 26 members of parliament may not be risky, but it could be problematic. I trust my colleagues,” and adds, “We can form a government with 26.” Eroğlu says they can form one, but there is a widespread belief in society that a coalition will be formed.
And that’s where the funny part comes in…
A party with the mandate to form a government says, “We can govern alone; we don’t need a coalition.” On the other hand, there is a camp saying, “No, you must form a coalition.”
So what actually lies behind this opposition and the statements about the need to form a coalition?
I don’t think the reasons being put forward to support these statements—such as “someone might fall ill and be unable to attend, or the government could be put in a difficult position by official duties abroad”—clearly reveal the truth.
Statements from Turkey and other countries warning that the negotiation process would be disrupted if UBP governed as a party that does not want a solution are undoubtedly rooted in UBP’s stance during the “Annan Plan” period. In this context, a coalition seems to be the way forward. The “need to form a coalition” that we mentioned above stems from this, too. This is no secret, and the situation is crystal clear when we look at the statements being made.
Although Eroğlu says, “We have never had, and never will have, any intention of ending the negotiations. Negotiations are essential in order to reach an agreement,” he needs to do more to convince Turkey first, and then the rest of the world.
This need seems likely to push UBP into a coalition.
Let’s take a look at the possible formulas: UBP – CTP: Impossible. This is one of the closest options for UBP to send that message, but it is impossible for the familiar reasons.
UBP – ÖRP: Utopian. You don’t have to be a prophet to see that such a government could be formed under pressure from Ankara! But even if this seems possible, it can only be a utopian formula, since it would open deep wounds within UBP. Eroğlu could not explain it either to his base or to his own members of parliament.
UBP – DP: A dead end. If the aim is to go beyond words and form a coalition to send a message that the negotiation process should not be disrupted, such an alliance would be illogical and lead nowhere.
UBP – TDP: Logical. UBP’s only way out is through a coalition with TDP. TDP is the only party with a vision for a solution, one that supports the EU and did not clash with UBP during the campaign. In this situation, a UBP – TDP coalition stands out as the most realistic and logical option.
In conclusion, I think the most logical choice for UBP would be to sit down and reach an agreement with TDP. Mehmet Çakıcı, whom I had as a guest on Öğlen Ajansı the other day, seems open to such an offer, as far as I can tell. He is saying so himself, after all.
On the other hand, it is quite clear that the public has no such concern. I tried to explain this in my column the day before yesterday. But it seems that those outside the country need to be convinced.
You don’t have to be a prophet to see this!
In any case, I don’t have any such concern!
I may also be wrong about the coalition model, but I think the answer is obvious.
In that case, I can’t help saying, “May the UBP–TDP coalition be a success.”
Until Tuesday, I hope…
Pay attention to your surroundings, keep them clean, and please be respectful in traffic!