_The question is simple! How can CTP be saved? But I think we need to fully understand the situation before answering it. For this reason, it is useful to proceed point by point…_ Self-criticism: We have seen some self-confident leaders within CTP analyze the situation consciously and with awareness. These leaders point out that CTP has been seriously worn down, and that the party needs to make major changes to its vision, leadership ranks, and program. On the other hand, there are those who argue that there has been no erosion at all, perhaps to emphasize that “I’m an even more committed CTP supporter.”
The Current Situation: If we consider the situation in the country and the actions of the CTP government, it is clear that society’s expectations have not been fully met. Yet CTP, which came to power amid great hopes and a breeze of optimism about a settlement, had a very good opportunity to prove itself. But CTP did not make full use of this opportunity! As a result, CTP has come to pin all its hopes on the negotiation process, its only way out. Trying to develop policies in this direction, CTP tied the solution to all the country’s problems to a resolution of the Cyprus issue in the early days of the negotiations, which began amid great hopes and optimism. Its statements reflected this. But both the difficulties the negotiation process was likely to face and the public’s loss of faith in the vision of a settlement—and, consequently, the failure of this policy to win people over—led CTP to suspend its rhetoric on this front! In these circumstances, it seems unlikely that CTP will once again be the senior partner in government after the next election. So how can CTP regain the same opportunity, and what can it do?
What Is Foreseen: If the ongoing comprehensive negotiations on the Cyprus issue reach the stage of producing a result next year, an early election will be put on the agenda. Developments toward a settlement of the Cyprus issue will strengthen the hand of the CTP camp, which believes it has a monopoly on supporting a settlement, in the election; CTP will once again emerge from the election as a strong party. CTP, which will hold a party congress during the same period, could see a different leadership team—or even a different party leader—come to the fore.
A Possible Plan for a Way Out: Contrary to appearances, if the Cyprus issue, now in the process of seeking a settlement, proceeds according to the timetable envisaged by those involved—which forecasts that the negotiations will conclude by June 2009 and a referendum will be held in the summer—there could be fundamental changes within CTP. Accordingly, an early election will be called before or immediately after the congress planned for March 2009. CTP, which plans to revive its vision of a settlement during this period, will already have changed its party leader at the congress, in order to harness this momentum and send the message that its worn-out leadership team has been replaced. Planning to go into the election with a new face and revived slogans about a settlement, CTP will seek ways to remain in power. Without a doubt, the institution that will help it most during this process will be UBP. As UBP experiences serious divisions within its grassroots as a result of the internal contest it has entered, it will take a long time to repair the damage. Ultimately, the opposition party, unable to present a clear vision of a settlement to the public during that election period, will play a significant supporting role in CTP’s plan for a way out.
In conclusion: _CTP is trying to find a way out by managing the coming period according to the plan I have described, making adjustments as circumstances dictate. We could also call this CTP’s plan for survival._ Until Tuesday, I hope…
Please be mindful of your surroundings, and please be respectful in traffic. The ‘Middle Play’ in the Buffer Zone---2.12.2008 _I don’t know how interested you are in theater, but I’m sure you know the “Middle Play”!_ _You know, the form generally known as “Traditional Turkish Theater”… This play is characterized by having no set, no script, and no prompter. In other words, it is improvised…_ _Just like the comprehensive negotiations continuing in the buffer zone…_ The remarks made by Christofias at a press conference following his meetings in Athens are quite striking! I’ll quote Christofias’s own words: “ Turkey will eventually take the European path. It will make new harmonization arrangements within the country and, of course, will fulfill its obligations toward Cyprus before the Cyprus issue is resolved. These obligations are to recognize the Republic of Cyprus and open its air and seaports to Cypriot aircraft and ships.” _Why is Christofias making these utopian demands of Turkey, presenting them as obligations, when he knows full well that they will not be accepted?_ First, let’s recall the view expressed by various circles about Christofias’s election: Christofias was the person the Greek Cypriot administration chose to lessen the repercussions and impact of the “no” vote after the 2004 referendum…
I agree with this view, and in my opinion it was the right decision from the Greek Cypriot administration’s perspective. But is Christofias the right person for Cyprus’s future? Within the island—in other words, on the Cyprus issue—the person chosen by the Greek Cypriot administration does not matter much! But when it comes to the world, the situation is quite different! As usual, unfortunately, the Greek Cypriot administration managed things well internationally and, with the passage of time and the person it chose as its leader, made the world forget the “no” vote in the referendum. In fact, by doing nothing over the past four years, we have greatly helped this policy of making the world forget! Anyway, what matters is where things stand now! At this point, a solution to the Cyprus issue is being sought through “comprehensive negotiations.” I say “so-called” because, as I just noted, Christofias—though the name itself is not important!—sees a solution not as something the two communities must work out, but as a list of things Turkey must do. And Christofias doesn’t stop there. In response to a question, listen to what he says: “ Our goal is not just to prevent Turkey from joining the EU. Our goal is for Turkey, if it genuinely wants to join the EU, to understand what this desire entails and what its interests are, and to be more flexible…” Although he goes on to mention Cyprus, a settlement, freedom, and so on, by starting his sentence with “just,” Christofias means: “Preventing it is not enough! We have to consider what we stand to gain by blocking it!”
Time will tell whether the Greek Cypriot side has the power to block Turkey within the EU. In any case, the Greek Cypriot side is playing for time, at least to try its luck. To gain time and strengthen its hand, it has chosen the farce called “Comprehensive Negotiations.” Mr. Talat, one of the two leaders sharing the lead role in this play staged in the buffer zone, must have realized what was going on, because last week he told Christofias, to put it bluntly, “Stop the theatrics and let’s get on with our work!” I don’t know whether Christofias, as someone from a people who are very fond of claiming what belongs to the Turks, will give up this farce. But whatever happens, he will continue to play for time.
In this situation, the real question is: What are we going to do, and do we have a plan?
Until Thursday, I hope…
Please be mindful of your surroundings, and please be respectful in traffic. | Pakistani Young Man---4.12.2008 The other day, I had the opportunity to talk with a young Pakistani friend who attends a school in our country. He says that deliberately, the terrorist attack in India last week is being blamed on Pakistan, and that similar incidents will happen again. In his view, this is necessary for the United States to enter Pakistan and establish a strong military position there!
I should point out that this young friend was worried as he said these things. It was impossible not to sense the anger and unease in his voice as we spoke! Just like my friend Abdullah, who, after the United States entered Iraq, I asked, “_How is your family?_” and who replied in a worried, angry voice, “_They’re afraid, Cem._” —Abdullah went to Iraq to be with his family, and unfortunately, I was never able to reach him again.— Anyway, let me return to my young Pakistani friend. His words may sound highly speculative to you… You might even dismiss them, thinking that the latest trend around the world is to blame everything on the United States! But there’s something else here!
Based on what I took from this young man’s words, I looked at the map and thought he might be right. After the September 11, 2001 attacks, many highly speculative explanations were offered, and discussions on the subject are still ongoing. We all know these debates. Whatever the debate, the fact is that the United States is in Afghanistan thanks to those attacks!
On the other hand, we also know this: Before September 11, Ukraine had sold China an aircraft carrier under the “so-called” guise of a pleasure boat. This greatly angered the United States, and the move was described in commentary as a rapprochement between Russia and China. The September 11 attacks came immediately after this development, and the fact that the United States ‘_solved the case immediately_ ’ and entered Afghanistan raised questions and prompted comments that the United States had come between Russia and China! In short, the United States realized in the early 2000s that the China threat was growing!
At this point, Obama’s announcement that he would withdraw U.S. military forces from Iraq and send them to Afghanistan when he takes office as U.S. president on January 20, 2009, seems significant in light of the China threat, and, considering the way the United States entered Iraq, like a policy worthy of admiration. Americans, who like to kill two birds with one stone—or more, if possible—are demonstrating their skills in this regard, too. On the one hand, they are building up their military presence in Afghanistan in response to the China threat; on the other, they will leave Iraq, which they entered in defiance of the whole world, and once again earn the world’s approval.
In light of all these developments, it is impossible not to feel both happy and sad! We may be glad because the United States shifting at least some of its military focus from the Middle East to China and its surrounding region could be positive and beneficial for the prosperity of this region. Of course, it would be impossible to say that the United States has lost interest in this region. But it is equally sad to know that the countries in and around China will no longer be left in peace by the United States… Pakistan now seems to be in the crosshairs. Sadly, it is as clear as day that peace in that region will not be allowed to prevail for a long time, ‘_especially_ .’ But the fact that the people of the region, particularly its young people, are aware of this may offer a glimmer of hope and bring some comfort. What can we say? May God help the people of the region…
Until Tuesday, I hope…
Please be mindful of your surroundings, and please be respectful in traffic.