I had the opportunity to discuss the latest situation in Greece with my dear friend Nikos Stelgia, Kathimerini Newspaper’s Athens correspondent. I asked, and my friend Niko answered… Are you wondering what is happening in Greece?
Cem Kar: Alongside the economic collapse, the political crisis in Greece continues. Is it possible to find a way out through the election to be held on June 17?
Nikoleas Stelgias: The latest public opinion polls show that the Marxist-left SYRİZA is the leading party, with approximately 20–22 percent of the vote. With this share of the vote, SYRİZA could win 100 to 110 seats in the upcoming election. It would be very difficult for this party to form a government with that number of seats in a 300-seat parliament. It could push for a coalition. However, this option also seems quite difficult. At this point, the question that will come to the fore is this: Will this left-wing confederal formation, with its Marxist background, choose to become a centrist party? For example, will it cooperate after the election with a system party like PASOK? For now, that seems difficult. And this is why the political crisis is deepening.
C.K: The economy is getting worse, and SYRİZA, which has attracted attention with its rhetoric about leaving the euro and its anti-EU stance, is leading in the polls. Merkel and Hollande have made their positions clear, prompting investors to withdraw their deposits from banks. It looks as if the crisis will deepen further. Could this lead to even greater social unrest?
N.S: Social distress in Greece has become something seen on the streets every day—a recurring development, not a one-night explosion. It is the collapse of a society, its demoralization and its loss of hope for the future... The key question is how far street activism can go. On one side there is the far right, and on the other, left-wing, socialist and anarchist forces. If the parliamentary system becomes even more deadlocked, activism in the streets will grow and the bells of civil war will begin to ring for Greece... At the moment, everything is on a knife-edge...
C.K: Is a civil revolution possible?
N.S: If the political-parliamentary system becomes fundamentally deadlocked, very interesting developments could take place in Greece.
C.K: Can the EU put forward real-world policies to resolve the problem? Or has the EU written Greece off? Would it do so?
N.S: The EU is left to contend with its own dilemmas… Where will it turn? Toward a bureaucratic authoritarian system with a democratic veneer? Will it shrink? Will Europe’s future be Germany and the few Central European states that are developing close cooperation with it? Is that what Europe’s future will look like? That is the direction things are heading… All the countries in the Mediterranean basin, including France and Spain, seem to have gone off the rails. Britain is in its own world. In this situation, all roads lead to Berlin.
C.K: Berlin’s position is clear… So, will this situation in Greece spill over into the negotiation process?
N.S: Since the early 2000s, Greece has always stayed in the background on the Cyprus issue. Apart from diplomatic support and the common defense doctrine, Athens has made an effort not to be seen at the forefront in Cyprus. This remains true today. The crisis in Greece could affect Cyprus, if at all, through the economy... Greece’s bankruptcy would put the south in a difficult position.
C.K: Given all this, would Greece allow movement toward a solution in the Cyprus negotiations?
N.S: It is not within Greece’s power to take a step on a very important issue right now. Even if it wanted to, it could not do so. Besides, SYRİZA, which is vying to come first, has some surprises in foreign policy for all of Cyprus and for Turkey... For example, the Marxists take a very different position on the Cyprus-Greece-Israel axis... What stands out for them is regional dialogue and the pursuit of cooperation among peoples...