Developments in Turkey have reached dizzying proportions. As election debates gradually die down, discussions about the presidential election to be held in August have already begun…
Yesterday morning, Erdoğan was asked a question about this, and it was impossible not to notice the sparkle in his eyes. At the same time, Erdoğan smiled as he brushed the question aside. In the end, Erdoğan responded by referring to Gül’s statement, saying: “I share our esteemed President’s view that ‘we will discuss the matter among ourselves and reach a decision.’”
As these remarks were being debated in the Turkish media, Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç took the discussion in a different direction on a program he appeared on at NTV, saying: “If the Prime Minister wants to be a candidate, the President will support him. When the two are alone, he will politely say, ‘You are the presidential candidate.’ Let’s wait for that moment. There are, of course, three to five months to go. Some people said that as the AK Party was worn down, Erdoğan would not have enough breath left to make it to the presidency. There was a belief that the road to Çankaya was closed. After March 30, it became clear that the road to Çankaya is open. If we had gone to a general election, Prime Minister Erdoğan would not have received less than 50 percent. There are very large segments of society that would form an alliance with Erdoğan. We could reach 51 percent. If he wants to be a presidential candidate in three to five months, Mr. Gül will not object.”
Given the three-term rule in the AKP’s bylaws, and based on Arınç’s remarks, we can say that “the road to Çankaya is now in sight for Erdoğan.” On the other hand, the question of who will take over the AKP’s leadership in the 2015 general election is now on the agenda. Therefore, following the presidential election, an early general election may be called (since the prime minister must be a member of parliament), or Gül could prepare to lead the AKP in the general election scheduled for 2015. In fact, Russia offers a precedent for this situation. As is well known, the “passing back and forth” of the offices of president and prime minister between Putin and Medvedev in Russia could just as well happen between Erdoğan and Gül in Turkey. After serving briefly as prime minister, Gül could be considered for the post again following his presidency. Arınç’s remarks on this matter are noteworthy: “(Recalling Gül’s time as prime minister) He was a very successful prime minister. For seven years, he has been an exemplary president. He has gone down in history as a highly regarded figure, and he will continue to do so. I hope he will serve as prime minister after the 2015 elections.”
It seems that Turkey’s political landscape will take shape over the next few years (if there is no outside intervention). As a result of this process, we may see Erdoğan as president and Gül in the prime minister’s seat.
Meanwhile, it could also be said that this plan is a necessary one. Before the wiretapping scandals that began on December 17, efforts were being made to open a debate on a presidential system in Turkey. Erdoğan had even said during his visit to the United States that “the ballot box could be set up three times in 2014.” At the time, these words were understood to mean holding the presidential election after the local elections and switching to a presidential system through a referendum in the autumn. But the agenda changed so dramatically that the issue did not even cross anyone’s mind. So, from what we understand from Arınç’s remarks, the AK Party will move to Plan B. We cannot know whether the plan will succeed, but from what we can see, Erdoğan wants to become president, while Gül is in the “I don’t mind; I’ll take whatever post I’m given” mode… Of course, time will tell…