Given the alliance that UBP and DP formed in previous local elections, it was not very successful. An alliance will be formed again in the upcoming local elections. Party officials describe the alliance in question as “partial”: in some areas they will field a joint candidate, while in others they will compete against each other. Although it seems feasible on paper and even mathematically likely to succeed, putting this alliance into practice seems difficult. The reason is that there are serious obstacles in its way. First of all, the parties will need to manage voters’ perceptions very effectively and ensure that voters clearly understand the situation. For example, UBP and DPUG will support a joint candidate in central Girne, but just a few kilometres away the same parties will be competing against each other. Explaining this situation to voters and influencing their choices will be very difficult for the parties in question.
Elections are about a “process of persuasion.” Voters will be confused if parties claim that their joint candidate will succeed in one area, but say the opposite in a neighbouring area. Yet the greatest proof of a political party’s existence lies in its claims and ideologies. In this situation, in an area where there is no alliance, UBP or DPUG will tell voters, “Our candidate is a better administrator than the other one,” while in an area where there is an alliance, they will have to say, “Our joint candidate is the best person for the job.” Their claims will lose credibility, and their core voters may even reach the point of saying, “What is this farce?”
To develop the example further, we can consider the alliance’s joint candidate in Lefkoşa, Sertoğlu. Just a year ago, as UBP’s candidate, Sertoğlu competed against DP’s candidate, Arabacıoğlu. During the election campaign, DP tried to explain to its voters why its own candidate was better than Sertoğlu or the other candidates, and asked them for their votes. Now the same DP will have to tell those same voters, “Actually, Sertoğlu is better,” and ask them to vote for him. How many DP voters will be convinced? How many will vote for Sertoğlu? On the other hand, how much support will Sertoğlu receive from UBP, given that he has faced strong criticism from UBP’s base over the agreement with KOP? The answers to all these questions lie with the voters…
This is just one example; the same situation could arise in other areas as well. And it may even go further: independent candidates could break the alliance, resulting in different scenarios in different areas. It is known that such a situation could arise in Girne.
On the other hand, alliances in politics cannot be assessed mathematically. In other words, for the reasons I have outlined above, you cannot determine an alliance’s share of the vote simply by adding together the parties’ vote shares in elections.
In the end, taking into account the reasons outlined above, I’ll leave it to you to decide whether the alliance will succeed…