Considering the alliance UBP and DP previously formed in local elections, it was not very successful. An alliance will be formed again in the upcoming local elections. Party officials describe this alliance as “partial”: in some areas they will put forward a joint candidate, while in others they will compete against each other. On paper, it seems feasible and even mathematically likely to succeed, but in practice it seems difficult to implement. There are serious obstacles in the way of the alliance. First of all, the parties will need to manage public perceptions very effectively and ensure that voters clearly understand the situation. For example, UBP and DPUG will support a joint candidate in central Girne, but a few kilometers away the same parties will be competing against each other. Explaining this situation to voters and guiding their choices will be very difficult for the parties in question.
Elections are a “process of persuasion.” Voters will be confused if parties say that their joint candidate will succeed in one area, but say the opposite in another area right next door. Yet the greatest proof of political parties’ existence lies in their claims and ideologies. In this situation, in an area where there is no alliance, UBP or DPUG will tell voters, “our candidate is a better administrator than the other one,” while in an area where there is an alliance, they will have to say, “our joint candidate is the person best suited to do this job.” Their claims will lose their footing, and their core voters may even reach the point of saying, “what is this farce?”
To develop the example further, we can consider the alliance’s joint candidate in Lefkoşa, Sertoğlu. Just a year ago, Sertoğlu was UBP’s candidate and competed against DP’s candidate, Arabacıoğlu. During the election campaign, DP tried to explain to its voters why its own candidate was better than Sertoğlu or the other candidates, and asked them for their votes. Now the same DP will have to tell those same voters, “actually, Sertoğlu is better,” and ask them to vote for him. How many DP voters will be convinced? How many will vote for Sertoğlu at the ballot box? On the other hand, how much support will Sertoğlu receive from UBP, given that the agreement with KOP has drawn a strong backlash from UBP’s base? The answers to all these questions lie with the voters…
This is just one example; the same situation could arise in other areas, too. And, going even further, the alliance could be undermined by independent candidates, making it possible for different scenarios to emerge in different areas. It is known that such a situation exists in Girne.
On the other hand, alliances in politics cannot be assessed mathematically. In other words, for the reasons I have outlined above, you cannot determine an alliance’s vote share by simply adding together the parties’ vote shares in elections.
Taking into account the reasons we have described above, I’ll leave it to you to decide whether the alliance will succeed…